Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Marginals and ultra-marginals

The normal working definition for a marginal seat is one where the majority is under 10%, which usually means under about 5,000 votes - although that does depend on turnout and the size of the constituency.
Then, within that group of seats, there are the ultra-marginals: places where the majority is under 2% - about 1,000 votes.
In 2017 there were 51 of these ultra-marginals - considerably more than in previous elections. In fact there were eight seats with a majority under 50.
All those will be hotly contested. The Conservatives will be hoping to win back some of the seats they lost last time - like CanterburyKeighley and Kensington - while Labour will try to take seats where it got within a whisker - such as ArfonPudsey and Southampton Itchen.

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