“WIPE OUT”; “Tories Hammer New Labour”; “Gordon is a moron” as well as being given a “bloody nose” and a “severe kicking” - these are some of the headlines following the Conservative victory in Crewe and (traditional Tory) Nantwich. Some humility in defeat should now be expected. But while we have lost this particular battle and admittedly the local council/ Assembly elections, it doesn’t mean that we will lose the war. However, what to do about all this?The electorate is clearly very volatile. It was after all not that long ago that I posted “Success in Ealing & Sedgefield”. I don’t believe that the political make up of the nation has changed radically right wing in such a short period. What I do believe is that it is more to do with the Clinton argument that “it’s the economy, stupid”. I’ve just received notification that my monthly direct debit for gas and electricity has gone up by £20, I never used to think twice about the cost of filling up with diesel, now I watch with horrified fascination how the £’s symbols on the fuel pumps spin faster than the litres. Bread and milk does cost more and the local off-licence has now finally increased the cost of 6 cans of 5% lager from £5 to £5.50.
If you had a slight panic earlier this year about the safety of your salary or savings if your bank went bust and now also believe (wrongly in the vast majority of cases) that you are paying more income tax this year, then you can see some powerful reasons why people deserted Labour for bright shiny New Tories.
While I think we need more policies like “fairness for agency workers” that will attract and mobilise our core vote, I don’t think that there is any evidence that moving significantly to “the Left” is the answer. Not least, because it is the centre that decides elections and power in this country. It just doesn’t make any sense to say that people vote Tory because Labour isn’t lefty enough. Others may point to 1945 and 1979 as examples of where Political Parties adopted radical politics and won elections. In 1945 following 6 years of collectivisation and total war, a free health service, secondary education and nationalisation was “centre” politics. While Thatcher in the 1979 election did not portray herself, in any way, as any sort of radical conservative.
It is the economy that will save us or bury us. This means there is room for optimism despite the gloom. There are two schools of thought: one, either the economic fundamentals are in good shape, the economy will survive the downturn and the commodity/energy price hike is a speculative bubble and will soon collapse. Or two, we will move into recession.
Talking of 1979, on Thursday evening I went to a “meeting” and bought a badge for 50p from a dear comrade. The badge logo said “Don’t blame me I Voted Labour”. I remember going to a TUC unemployment march organised in Liverpool in 1980 helping to carry a banner saying the same thing. At the time male unemployment levels in my part of Wales was about 30%. I was actually too young to have voted in the election, but never mind. One of the things I do remember is how confident many of my fellow marchers were that Thatcher was only going to be a one hit wonder and obviously Labour would get in next time. Some prediction that one turned out to be...
The “New Labour Coalition” may well be faltering, battered and bruised but it is not dead. There is still everything to play for. Surely for no other reason, than the price of failure is just too much to bear.
(Poster of famous musical hall star Marie Lloyd singing “Oh Mr Porter” – click on link and you can hear a version of the song!)
