Claims of ‘permanent Conservative rule’ after Scottish independence don’t stand up to history

For some reason I didn't get around to posting this before the referendum on Scottish Independence.  At the Labour Party conference last week I heard the "myth" still being repeated.

"It’s common to hear claims like this about the effect of Scottish independence on future UK elections. The argument goes that since Scotland has predominantly Labour MPs, then without Scotland the UK would have a permanent Conservative majority in the House of Commons.

This reasoning doesn’t stand up to past experience. Since 1918, only four UK general election outcomes would have been affected had Scottish MPs been taken out of the equation.

Election	Winner	Winner (no Scotland)
1918	CON	CON
1922	CON	CON
1923	Hung – CON largest	Hung – CON largest
1924	CON	CON
1929	Hung – LAB largest	Hung – LAB largest
1931	CON	CON
1935	CON	CON
1945	LAB	LAB
1950	LAB	LAB
1951	CON	CON
1955	CON	CON
1959	CON	CON
1964	LAB	Hung – CON largest
1966	LAB	LAB
1970	CON	CON
1974 Feb	Hung – LAB largest	Hung – CON largest
1974 Oct	LAB	Hung – LAB largest
1979	CON	CON
1983	CON	CON
1987	CON	CON
1992	CON	CON
1997	LAB	LAB
2001	LAB	LAB
2005	LAB	LAB
2010	Hung – CON largest	CON

In 1964 Labour won a slim majority; without Scottish MPs it would have been a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. In the October 1974 election (the second that year), Labour again secured a wafer-thin majority, but without Scotland it would have fallen short with the Conservatives as the largest party. Most recently, in 2010 the Conservative party would have had a majority if Scotland were taken out; in reality of course it fell short.

That’s not to say it wouldn’t be more difficult for Labour: a majority of Scottish MPs have been Labour at every election since 1955, and Labour remains dominant by historical standards. Hence the ‘advantage’ to the Conservatives in Scotland’s absence is getting bigger

Better Together - A Proud Nation

This is the latest Referendum Broadcast - which was broadcast last night on BBC One. "We can have the Best of Both Worlds - a strong Scottish Parliament with more powers guaranteed and the the strength, security and stability of being part of the UK". We are better together.

Better Together UK - The Best of Both Worlds

The Referendum on Scottish independence is obviously a matter for people who live in Scotland. I am half Scottish and use to live in Scotland and if I lived there now, I would vote "No" to independence. However, I think the rest of the UK can also express their opinion and show their support for the union.

Westminster Question Time #LabLink14

Trying to catch up with posts from UNISON Labour Link National Forum 2014 earlier this month.

The first speaker on "Westminster Question Time" was  UNISON member and local MP, Dawn Primarolo. Dawn has been the MP for Bristol South since 1987. In fact in 1987 Dawn was the only Labour MP to be elected in the whole of the South West of England.

She is currently a deputy speaker at the House of Commons (official title "Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means").  Dawn said she had been asked whether use to be a teacher? She says, no, she learnt to cope as Speaker by being a parent.

At the moment Dawn is trying to stop the privatisation of a local Bristol GP Surgery.  A contract has been put out but it is totally unclear who is responsible and despite it being a 14 day process, the local NHS is refusing to speak to her, because it may "compromise" the tender.  Dawn asked the Labour Party to make it clear that we are not going to allow the privatisation of our NHS.

Dawn is also campaigning on the "Living Wage" and is asking the Mayor of Bristol why in a rich city, we are not paying everyone a living wage? Dawn is standing down as an MP in 2015 but is pleased that an excellent unison member, Karin Smyth, is replacing her as our candidate.

Next speaker on the panel was Kerry McCarthy MP for Bristol East.   Kerry supported the call for a Living Wage but also asked for the banning of "zero hour" employment contracts, which cause misery to many of her constituents. She also attacked the proposed privatisation of cancer services by this Government. Kerry pointed out that all of us here now know what will happen to the NHS if the Tories get in again in 2015.

During the Q&A the panel were asked what they thought of "Executive Mayors". Dawn responded that she was not a fan of executive mayors and thought they were undemocratic. There is now an opportunity with the Labour plan to devolve powers to look again at the system.. For one person to hold all this power without any accountability is wrong, no matter how good they are.

When asked about priorities of a new Labour Government Kerry said that there is a massive task and a lot to do since this Government had spent the last 4 years destroying all what we have done.

To a (leading) question about the Scottish referendum (by a Scottish delegate) "Is separation better or should we stand together and fight together?"Dawn replied "I'm for the union. All the gains we have ever got have been made by fighting together".