Monday, May 30, 2016

The UK's housing bubble: ready to pop?

As someone who was badly caught out by the last major crash in 1990 - this chart frightens me.

The report is from Fathoms, who are economic advisors to Newham Council Investment and Accounts Committee.

"The UK's house price to income ratio has been inflated to within a whisker of its pre-recession peak and is well above its long-term average.

Property prices would need to fall by up to 40%, or household income grow at ten times its current pace for the next five years, in order to bring the ratio back to balance.

We maintain our view that this increase is demand driven, brought about by both exceptionally low real rates of interest and Chancellor Osborne's Help to Buy scheme.

The housing market is likely to remain overvalued at anything other than near-zero interest rates. Fearful of destabilising the fragile arithmetic that underpins the housing market, we believe that Bank Rate normalisation is a distant prospect - regardless of the EU referendum result".

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