How wrong public opinion can be on key social issues

Hat tip Redbrick "A fascinating paper published yesterday by the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London – The Power of Perception - reported on a survey undertaken by Ipsos MORI which ‘shows just how wrong public opinion can be on key social issues’.

1. Teenage pregnancy: on average, we think teenage pregnancy is 25 times higher than official estimates: we think that 15% of girls under 16 get pregnant each year, when official figures suggest it is around 0.6%.
2. Crime: 58% do not believe that crime is falling, when the Crime Survey for England and Wales shows that incidents of crime were 19% lower in 2012 than in 2006/07 and 53% lower than in 1995. 51% think violent crime is rising, when it has fallen from almost 2.5 million incidents in 2006/07 to under 2 million in 2012.
3. Job-seekers allowance: 29% of people think we spend more on JSA than pensions, when in fact we spend 15 times more on pensions (£4.9bn vs £74.2bn).
4. Benefit fraud: people estimate that 34 times more benefit money is claimed fraudulently than official estimates: the public think that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, compared with official estimates of £0.70 per £100.
5. Foreign aid: 26% of people think foreign aid is one of the top 2-3 items government spends most money on, when it actually made up 1.1% of expenditure (£7.9bn) in the 2011/12 financial year. More people select this as a top item of expenditure than pensions (which cost nearly ten times as much, £74bn) and education in the UK (£51.5bn).
6. Religion: we greatly overestimate the proportion of the population who are Muslims: on average we say 24%, compared with 5% in England and Wales. And we underestimate the proportion of Christians: we estimate 34% on average, compared with the actual proportion of 59% in England and Wales.
7. Immigration and ethnicity: the public think that 31% of the population are immigrants, when the official figures are 13%. Even estimates that attempt to account for illegal immigration suggest a figure closer to 15%. There are similar misperceptions on ethnicity: the average estimate is that black and Asian people make up 30% of the population, when it is actually 11% (or 14% if we include mixed and other non-white ethnic groups).
8. Age: we think the population is much older than it actually is – the average estimate is that 36% of the population are 65+, when only 16% are.
9. Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option), over twice the level that select raising the pension age to 66 for both men and women or stopping child benefit when someone in the household earns £50k+. In fact, capping household benefits is estimated to save £290m, compared with £5bn for raising the pension age and £1.7bn for stopping child benefit for wealthier households.
10. Voting: we underestimate the proportion of people who voted in the last general election – our average guess is 43%, when 65% actually did.

UNISON Labour Link Forum 2013 - "Decent Pensions for All"

I was unable to go to this years' UNISON National Labour Link forum since it clashed with my local Councillor selection hustings (I was reselected as a candidate for West Ham ward in 2014).  Which is a great shame and the first one I have missed in years.

Top Greater London Regional Labour Link elected rep, Linda Bentley, moved our London region motion "Decent Pensions for All" which was passed overwhelmingly by the Forum.  Below is her speech.

"Forum, private and not for profit employers providing public services up and down the country are getting rid of their guaranteed defined benefit pensions schemes - and replacing them often with grossly inferior and insecure pensions.

Sodexo, The Pension Trust, G4S, the Social Housing Pension fund and even the national charity Barnardos

While other employers are planning huge hikes in pension contributions for our members if they want their schemes to remain open. This will in many cases lead to the schemes being unaffordable to members - who will just leave. - Which of course means that these schemes as well will simply close.

Forum, we must oppose these closures not only because we want our members to retire in dignity and not die in poverty. But Forum, our members are being conned out of their pensions by the financial services industry.

They say guaranteed pensions are too expensive? This is nonsense. The way they price pensions is outdated and simply wrong. They price so called pensions deficits by reference to the price of government bonds called gilts. Due to the current economic crisis these gilts are at a 200 year low. But why is this 200 year low price is still used to justify closures?

Forum, modern guaranteed defined pensions are as affordable now as they have ever been. For example the cost to employers of the Local Government Pension Scheme is fixed at 13% of wages. That is not unaffordable.

One other thing forum. Why don’t unions in this country help provide pensions as they do in many other countries? Is one reason why members in private companies won’t join a pension scheme is because they just don’t trust the financial services industry? Isn’t the provision of pensions something the labour movement should be at least looking at?

Finally Forum, in my view if guaranteed defined pensions schemes like mine only remain in the traditional public sector then our pensions will never be safe. We must have guaranteed pensions in the private sector – we must have decent pensions for all".

Future Directions workers out in force at the Durham Miners' Gala

From Today's UNISON eFocus
"Future Directions workers were out in force at the Durham Miners' Gala at the weekend, pressing their case for pay justice at the annual celebration of the labour movement.

The workers from Rochdale in Greater Manchester are taking industrial action, including strikes - most recently for four days - over pay cuts and slashed terms and conditions which could see some losing up to £10,000 a year.

Some 115 members are being forced to take industrial action by their employer Future Directions, a "community interest company" set up by the local NHS foundation trust to provide community services.

The workers were transferred to the new company from the NHS and local councils under TUPE.
When the action started in May, Rochdale branch secretary Helen Harrison said: "Our members provide a vital service to vulnerable adults living in Rochdale. They do a tough job, and now they are being asked to do it for even less money, on worse terms and conditions.

"Some of our members may lose their homes because of these drastic cuts. They care deeply about the services they provide, but have no choice but to take this strike action."

Messages of support and donations can be sent to Helen Harrison, branch secretary, Rochdale UNISON, 46 Richard Street, Rochdale, OL11 1DU. Email: unison@rochdale.gov.uk. Cheques can be made payable to Rochdale UNISON".

A Girl With a Book

Sign the petition and stand with Malala Yousafzai for teachers, schools and books.

Newham Carnival and Mayor Show 2013

Picture Collage from the Newham Carnival and Mayor Show yesterday.

The weather was glorious and the Show was packed out with families from all over Newham enjoying themselves.

Local Councillors were at the Community Hub tent where we took part in possibly the most important task of the weekend.

Handing out free Newham helium filled balloons to endless queues of awestruck young children!

Poor Pay More in Taxes than Rich

Hat tip to BBC Mark Easton tweet on this table left (click to bring up details).

The poorest 20% of households pay more of their income in taxes than the richest 20%.

36.6% against 35.5%.

Actually the poorest pays more than anyone else! I suspect that the Tory VAT tax hike may be one reason. Indirect tax rises punish the poor the most.

So - we are not all in this together!

Newham Labour Party Candidates for Council Elections 2014

Saturday 6th July
West Ham branches meet at the Old Town Hall, Stratford
East Ham branches meet at Newham Town Hall, East Ham

10am:

Stratford & New Town	Charlene McLean	Richard Crawford	Terry Paul
Manor Park	Jo Corbett	Amarjit Singh	Salim Patel

11.30am:

Green Street West	Tahmina Rahman	Hanif Abdulmuhit	Idris Ibrahim
Little Ilford	Farah Nazeer	Andrew Baikie	Ken Clark

1.30pm: Plaistow North;

Plaistow North	Joy Laguda	Forhad Hussain	James Beckles
Boleyn	Postponed

3.00pm:

West Ham	Freda Bourne	John Gray	John Whitworth
East Ham Central	Julianne Marriott	Ian Corbett	Unmesh Desai

4.30pm:

Forest Gate South	Dianne Walls	Mas Patel	Winston Vaughan
East Ham South	Lakmini Shah	Quintin Peppiatt	Susan Masters

Sunday 7th July
West Ham branches meet at the Old Town Hall, Stratford
East Ham branches meet at Newham Town Hall, East Ham

10.00am:

Forest Gate North	Seyi Akiwowo	Ellie Robinson	Rachel Tripp
Wall End	Frances Clarke	Lester Hudson	Ted Sparrowhawk

11.30am:

Plaistow South	Aleen Alarice	Neil Wilson	Gordon Miller
Beckton	Ayesha Chowdhury	David Christie	Alec Kellaway

1.30pm:

Canning Town North	Ann Easter	Clive Furness	Kay Scoresby
East Ham North	Firoza  Nekiwala	Paul Sathianesan	Zubair Gulamussen

3.00pm:

Custom House	Pat Holland	Conor McAuley	Rokhsana Fiaz
Green Street East	Rohima Rahman	Mukesh Patel	Jose Alexander

4.30pm:

Canning Town South	Sheila Thomas	Alan Griffiths	Bryan Collier
Royal Docks	Steve Brayshaw	Tony McAlmont	Pat Murphy

(results were also published on twitter @NewhamLabour. Hat tip stats to Ali G)

UPDATE: Check here Newham Council website for up-to-date list of all candidates

Is Miliband following UNISON or Stanley Baldwin over Union funding?

UNISON General Secretary Dave Prentis sent out an email yesterday to the union explaining that our funding of the Labour Party has been on the basis of individual members choosing whether to pay an affiliate fee or not (they can "opt in" or "opt out").  UNISON has also never paid the Party membership fees for new members.

He also questioned whether in the face of the Tory onslaught on working people in this country this is the right time for the Party and the unions to be having such a public row on funding?

When UNISON was formed in 1993 the predecessor unions NUPE and COHSE were affiliated to the Labour Party while NALGO was not. It was agreed that there would be two political funds in UNISON and members can choose to opt into a fund supporting the Labour Party (now called "Labour Link") or a General Political fund not linked to any Party (or they can opt out of any political fund).

This to me has always seemed a pretty sensible and pragmatic compromise for UNISON and I think due to our history - for us it works .

While other trade unions affiliate all or part of their membership to the Party.  I think it is important to remember that this decision to affiliate is taken via the internal democratic processes of that Union. So there is accountability. In the same way that my UNISON branch may vote to affiliate to organisations at our AGM that I did not support but I accept that this affiliation had been democratically decided upon and part of my subs is being used to fund it.  Of course members can simply choose to opt out of paying any political affiliation if they so choose.

The real immediate risk is that if the Party goes ahead and decides to introduce "opting in" only - is that a year or so before a General Election there may be a drastic reduction of union money when we will need every penny we can get to defeat the Tories. We should be doing nothing that gets in that way. UNISONActive reminds us that in 1927 Tory Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin introduced a similar measure which resulted in a 50% drop in affiliation fees for the Labour Party.

The real solution in my view is not about whether trade union members opt "in" or "out" it is about getting ordinary rank and file members actively involved in the Party. To do this there is a shared responsibility. The Party has got to make it attractive for people to attend local Ward and CLP meetings. This is not only just about making them less boring and more inclusive (please) but giving them more power and a greater say in the Party.

The Unions have also got to raise their game and realise that they cannot exercise influence in the Party by simply waving cheques. This just doesn't work - the only way to make the Party more accountable to the needs and wishes of ordinary working people is to encourage and support our members to join and become active.

The only alternative to the Labour Party in this country is the Tories. The Labour Movement family need to get their act together and remember first and foremost our enemy is the Tories and not the unions and not even Progress.  We must get as many members actively involved and raise as much money as possible in order to defeat them in 2015. Everything else comes a very poor second to this.

What will a future Labour Government do with the NHS?

Newham Compass and Fabians will be holding this important debate on Tuesday 10 September 2013 at 7.30pm at West Ham Supporters Club. I will be at TUC congress and will miss it - which is a shame.

Local Government Pension Scheme: Past & Future: Reform or Revolution?

Check out this PowerPoint presentation I made on the LGPS to the AMNT open meeting last month.