Saturday, October 06, 2007

Prudence says No


So it’s off. My home Virgin media broadband connection crashed yesterday afternoon, then while trying desperately to work out whether or not it was my PC or Virgin at fault (it was of course Virgin), I got a text from a normally “very reliable source” saying “there will be no general election”. I switched on BBC 24 and it was confirmed that Gordon had told Andrew Marr that there will be no immediate election.

I had simultaneously a profound sense of relief and disappointment.

I think that since the Labour Party is in Government and can constitutionally remain in power until at least 2010, then the prospect that we volunteered to go door knocking and delivering leaflets before we had to, during cold dark damp winter evenings, was somewhat discouraging. Especially since opinion polls can be wrong and the predicted margin of victory was pretty narrow (or indeed off beam if today’s polls about the Tories being ahead in marginals are correct).

On the otherhand, any election is energising to any real activist. I admit that I have political scores to settle (mention no names). The opinion polls may have been a little flaky but it is almost unprecedented for a fourth term British government to be ahead in polls. I don’t know for certain but I imagine that Gordon would have instinctively wanted to hold an election as soon as he became PM to establish his authority. The awkward squad on our own side will no doubt make problems over policies they want to grandstand over in the near future.

There again, they would probably do this anyway if they were re-elected on a Brown manifesto.

Anyway, Prudence has spoken. Remember this instinctive caution and intellectual analysis is one of the reasons why this son of the manse was re-elected unopposed. Yes, Gordon probably wanted to hold a snap election soon after he took over to give him a clearer mandate; yes, there appeared to be an opportunity too good to dismiss after Tory disarray during the summer and deft handling by Gordon of critical events.

Yes, I did think that he was going to hold an election and it is clear that he was seriously considering it. However, upon reflection he decided against it.

Is there anything really wrong with that? Isn’t this something we should encourage politicians of all Parties to do a little more thinking and being susceptible to arguments before making a final decision? It’s a good thing in my book.

Remember with Gordon, WYSIWYG and if Gordon decided after shifting through all the evidence, this was not the best time to hold an election then we can expect nothing less than for him to say "No".

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its not caution and careful analysis..he has bottled it. This is a turning point for Cameron..a tactical victory for him and a humilating defeat for Gordon. No matter how he will try to pretend that the media built all the hype up, it is clear that he was preparing to go to the polls and he has been completely out manoeuvred, Now the economy is going to comeback and haunt him. He is a lame duck.

John Gray said...

Hi Anon

Come on, this is just a little bit OTT, after all, who will remember this in two years time? I think that such caution and deliberation will become a hallmark of a Brown administration. No more Blair Spin?

It is ironic that some people are shouting up and down about this decision, when not so long ago they were deploring the lack of genuine debate and discussion before important decisions are made.

Anonymous said...

Lack of Blair spin? That's why he went to Iraq in the middle of the Tory conference too announce some fairy story about troop reductions - errr for troops not yet in Iraq? Just co-incidental the timing of course.
The whole election debate has been badly mis-handled by him - even you were taken in! Ever felt like you've been had!

John Gray said...

Hi anon

I think the criticism is regarding troops that have already left Iraq? Anyway, I would agree that the debate could have been handled differently. But, and of course it is a big but, I was surprised that Gordon was serious considering an early election and so I am pleased to hear today that his instincts were against an election. I was up for an election but relived it didn’t happen. Fair play to Gordon for listening to all sections of the Party before making a decision. Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Fairplay to Gordon for listening to all sections of the party...yeah,right! the polls had nothing to do with it of course? What a wuss!

Anonymous said...

Good to see Darling adopting some Tory policies...its nearly as good as having the Conservatives in Government...cutting back spending on Government, tax cuts, seeing Maggie back in Number 10 to offer Gordon some advice, Dianne Abott and Ruth Kelly sending their children to private schools - we even got rid of Blair. ....would Lord Hill of Streatham approve! What losers!

John Gray said...

Hi Anon
I take it that Gordon will not be on your crimbo list this year?

John Gray said...

“Good to see Darling….”

Hi Anon

Oh come, chill a bit – the government will still continue to massively increase investment in public services - in real terms, Maggie was invited to No 10 to wind up Tories (it worked at the time), I think that Dianne and Ruth were wrong, but since I haven’t got any kids I’m always a bit uncomfortable about criticising parents over such decisions, Blair had his time and it was time to go.

Since both of them at the moment seem to be having the time of their lives I think that his former PPS would agree.

Anonymous said...

Well I'm going to keep your quote of "massively investing in public services", it's nearly as good as "no more boom or bust"..which is total cobblers. The fact is that is a massive iceberg of debt been built up throughout the economy, and now its going to have to be paid for! Personally I'm pleased there was no election because Brown has made his bed and now the "iron chancellor" is going to have the opportunity to sleep in it.

John Gray said...

Well, we’re wait and see. Despite there still being real problems in our society so far we have had 10 years without “boom or bust”, high employment, reducing poverty, crime and our government debt levels are still below average (and we still spend less than European average on health).

Dare I say “we have never had it so good”?