(NB. Below is why our election system in this country is nuts). Picture BBC
68% of votes had no impact on election result:
Electoral Reform Society publish definitive report on June vote
EMBARGOED: ‘The 2017 General Election: Volatile Voting – Random
Results’ report also shows 6.5m estimated to have voted tactically,
and models result under different voting systems using YouGov survey
of 13,000+ voters
The instability of Westminster’s supposedly ‘strong and
stable’ voting system has been laid bare, according to extensive new
research by the Electoral Reform Society.
The Society’s landmark General Election report, ‘The 2017 General Election:
Volatile Voting, Random Results’, reveals:
- Volatile voting: This election saw
the second highest electoral volatility (the movement of votes
between parties) since 1931. People are switching sides and
shopping around at ‘astonishing’ levels
- Wasted votes: 68% of votes had no
impact on the result – 22 million votes were wasted this
election [1]
- Tiny margins: 0.0016%
of voters choosing differently would have given the
Conservatives a majority, while the election saw rise in very
marginal seats: eleven seats were won by fewer than 100
votes
- The ‘hold your nose’
election: ERS estimate 6.5 million people voted tactically, alongside surge in
smaller parties standing aside
- A divisive system: First Past the Post
is exaggerating divisions in the UK – Labour secured 29% of
South East vote but got just 10% of seats, while Conservatives
won 34% of the North East vote but got just 9% of seats.
Meanwhile, the SNP continue to be over-represented in Scotland,
as is Labour in Wales, while Northern Ireland voters are forced
into two camps
- Seats not matching
votes: The Conservatives largely benefited from the
discrepancy between votes and seats, winning 56% of English
seats on 46% of the vote – while losing out significantly in
Wales. The voting system is struggling to keep up with huge
changes in partisan alignment [2]
- The results under PR:
Labour
would have emerged as largest party under Scotland and Northern
Ireland’s Single Transferable Vote system, according to huge
YouGov survey of voters’ party preferences [3]
Darren Hughes,
newly-appointed Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society,
said:
“For the third time in a row, Westminster’s voting system has failed
to do what it says on the tin – produce a ‘strong and stable’
government.
“June’s election has shown First Past the Post is unable to cope with
people’s changing voting habits – forcing citizens and parties to try
and game the system. With an estimated 6.5 million people ‘holding
their nose’ at the ballot box, voters have been denied real choice
and representation.
“This surge in tactical voting – double the rate of 2015 – meant
voters shifted their party allegiances at unprecedented rates, with
the second highest level of voter volatility since the inter-war
years. A system designed for two parties cannot accommodate these
complex electoral swings.
“In the nations and regions of the UK, elections now feel more like
lottery than a real choice. As we’ve shown, tiny shifts in the vote
result in drastically different outcomes. Having results hinge on a
few hundred voters is no way to run a modern democracy.
“The vast majority of votes are going to waste, with millions still
stuck in the electoral black hole of winner-takes-all. A diverse and
shifting public having to work around a broken two-party system. The
result is volatile voting, and random results in the different parts
of the UK.
“There are a wide range of systems where votes are not thrown on the
electoral scrapheap. We need to move towards a means of electing our
MPs where all voices are heard and where people don’t feel forced to
hold their nose at the ballot box.
“2017 was the third strike for First Past the Post. It’s out.”
Embargoed
report link: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/2017-UK-General-Election-Report.pdf
Read the ERS’
2015 General Election report here: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2015-UK-General-Election.pdf
[1] Number of
wasted votes by region
[2] Seats
don't match votes (Conservatives in blue, Labour in red)
[3] The
results projected under different voting systems (based on YouGov
survey of 13,000 voters)
Party
|
FPTP
|
AV
|
AMS
|
STV
|
Conservative
|
317
|
303
|
273
|
283
|
Labour
|
262
|
286
|
260
|
297
|
Liberal Democrats
|
12
|
11
|
39
|
29
|
UKIP
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
1
|
Green Party
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
SNP
|
35
|
27
|
21
|
18
|
Plaid Cymru
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
|
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